mckinsey hydrogen supply model

Not all models are available in all markets. 14 Hydrogen is a central pillar of the energy transformation required to limit global warming to two degrees 16 In all seven application areas, hydrogen can offer … Use minimal essential McKinsey Global Institute. Industry experts believe that the total cost of ownership of BEVs and FCEVs could converge over the next decade and become competitive with internal-combustion-engine (ICE) vehicles 12 or 15 years from today. Hydrogen is currently considered one of the most promising sustainable energy carriers for mobility applications. We strive to provide individuals with disabilities equal access to our website. Natural disasters usually cut the energy supply chain in an area, causing a shortage of fuel supply and power outages. Gaseous trucking, liquid trucking 3. -free hydrogen by 2050. By 2030, the equivalent of about 80 million zero-emission vehicles will be needed on the road, and by 2050, average CO2 emissions will need to decrease by 70 percent per passenger kilometer. A new podcast this week examined those same supply-chain issues, in the context of McKinsey Global Institute’s August 2020 report on risk and resilience. Building a midsize filling station in Germany already costs half as much as it did five years ago, around $1 million, but further decreases are needed to support the rollout into the mass market. The McKinsey 7S Framework. on. February 26, 2021. SCARICA L'ARTICOLO IN FORMATO PDF. Ridesharing or taxi services, which require high uptime, could drive early adoption, and ambitious national targets—such as 1.8 million FCEVs on Chinese and Japanese roads by 2030—could create additional momentum. 1 week ago . The hydrogen revolution: A new development model that starts with the sea, the sun and the wind. The authors of this report confirm that: 1. Reaching these ambitious targets will require a range of powertrains and fuels. Content Executive summary 7 Methodology 12 Our vision. The authors of this report confirm that: ... the supply chain On average, the cost of hydrogen supplied comprises more than 70 per cent of the TCO for ... — Hydrogen boilers will be a competitive low-carbon building heating alternative, especially for By. Published. Hydrogen demand in Italy: hydrogen could provide almost one quarter of all energy. Gaseous trucking, liquid trucking 3. The relative strengths and weaknesses of these technologies, however, suggest that they should play complementary roles. Subscribed to {PRACTICE_NAME} email alerts. 7 days ago . Our mission is to help leaders in multiple sectors develop a deeper understanding of the global economy. With scale, the Hydrogen Council estimates that infrastructure costs of less than $1,000 per FCEV are possible. The seven hydrogen tanks provide a storage capacity of almost 35 kg of hydrogen, which give the truck a range of around 400 kilometers. Refineries with a reformer typically generate a large portion of the hydrogen they need, but often this must be supplemented with intentional hydrogen generation, especially when making ultra-low sulfur fuels or when using a hydrocracker for conversion. Systemtechnik GmbH (LBST) and McKinsey & Company. Never miss an insight. Global fossil fuel demand should peak in 2027, says consulting firm McKinsey. a decarbonized hydrogen supply is possible and what it would entail – they do not constitute a prediction nor recommendation on the optimal future hydrogen supply. Hydrogen Enablers Hydrogen Supply & End-Use Equipment Adapted from McKinsey, Exhibit 4, US Hydrogen Roadmap, October 2020 2020-2022 Immediate next steps 2023-2025 Early Scale Up 2026-2030 Diversification 2031 + Broad Rollout Dedicated hydrogen production for mobility [AB FCEV Truck Fleet] First large scale electrolyzerplants (50MW +) Development of electrolytic hydrogen production … Hydrogen and batteries are often portrayed as competing technologies, and batteries have received a lot of attention in recent years (“proton versus electron”). "Retailers in other industries have implemented digital technologies to gain a better understanding of consumer habits and preferences, optimize pricing models, and manage supply chains more efficiently. In all, the transportation sector could consume 20 million fewer barrels of oil per day if hydrogen were deployed to the extent described. While these investments are crucial, more will be required to reach scale and lower costs. The scenarios are based on a simplified model on resource availability, hydrogen production costs, and life-cycle emissions Bernd Heid, a senior partner in the German office of the consulting firm McKinsey & Company, said that hydrogen could play a role in reducing carbon dioxide in … Since 2010, the cost of electrolysis-produced hydrogen has fallen by 60%, from between USD $10-$15/kg of hydrogen to as low as USD $4-$6/kg today. Please try again later. New supply chain operating model challenges all dimensions of the supply chain The strategic objective is clear: more revenue, lower costs, satisfied customers. At the COP21 meeting in Paris in 2015, 195 countries agreed to keep global warming below 2 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels. cookies, accelerate the deployment of low-carbon technologies, McKinsey_Website_Accessibility@mckinsey.com, batteries have received a lot of attention, as electric mobility becomes widely accepted. In April 2019, Snam was the first energy company in Europe to introduce of a mix of 5% hydrogen by volume and natural gas into its transmission network. Hydrogen buses are starting to get traction due to concerns about local pollution, particularly in Europe, China, Japan, and South Korea. Indeed, we applied our model to 3 specific case scenarios of Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle (“FCEV”) use today – focusing on an logistics operator in Shanghai, a drayage truck operator in California, and a bus operator in London. Hydrogen is generated as a byproduct of the reforming process and is also made on purpose in the hydrogen plant. About 60 percent of this investment would go into scaling up the production, storage, and distribution of hydrogen, and 30 percent into series development, production lines, and new business models. since its architecture will determine the path that the company will go through to reach their goals. Note: *The three volume series include: 1) Hydrogen and fuel cell solutions for transportation; 2) Hydrogen and fuel cell applications now and future; 3) Evolution and future of hydrogen supply chain The Hydrogen Council, with analytical support from McKinsey, envisions “a market for hydrogen and hydrogen technologies with revenues of more than $2.5 trillion per … Currently, each ton of CO2 saved through FCEVs is estimated to cost more than $1,500, and a significant scale-up is required to bring the technology to a breakeven point with conventional ones around 2030 to 2035. Assumes average blue and green production cost in Europe (Germany offshore wind) SOURCE: McKinsey Hydrogen Supply Model Contact secretariat@hydrogencouncil.com www.hydrogencouncil.com. Also known as: H2. Keywords: McKinsey 7S model, supply chain management, local SMEs construction business 1. Published. Global energy demand Electricity demand/supply Gas demand Oil demand Carbon emissions 2 Editor’s note ... model offers a detailed outlook across 146 countries, 55 energy types, and 30 sectors, and then aggregates these ... • Hydrogen can play a role in such a world if retail prices drop to USD3.5/kg or below. Something went wrong. Need more investment in new technologies. Rapidly scale cost-competitive technologies and business models to reduce near-term emissions. Hydrogen scaling-up - McKinsey for hydrogen council 1. Even when ignoring qualitative benefits of hydrogen (i.e. In a 95% decarbonization scenario (needed to stay below the 1.5-degree global warming threshold), we estimate hydrogen could supply as much as 23% A more uncertain world. Cost reduction perspective for hydrogen (USD/kg dispensed) 1. The next five years will see the introduction of more models in medium-sized and large cars, buses, trucks, vans, and trains, and it is likely that additional segments such as smaller cars and minibuses will follow until 2030. Giancarlo Elia Valori “Once again in history, energy is becoming the protagonist of a breaking phase in capitalism: a great transformation is taking place, matched by the digital technological revolution”. To help guide regulators, decision-makers, and investors, the Hydrogen Council collaborated with McKinsey & Company to release the report ‘Hydrogen Insights 2021: A Perspective on Hydrogen Investment, Deployment and Cost Competitiveness’. Compression for gaseous trucking, liquefaction for liquid trucking 2. Please email us at: McKinsey Insights - Get our latest thinking on your iPhone, iPad, or Android device. Hydrogen production. Source: Hydrogen Cost Model. Hydrogen is an option as important as renewable energies (R.E.) McKinsey’s proprietary Electric Vehicle Index (EVI) focuses on battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). economically sound business model for businesses, and a greener world for all of us. Not all models are available in all markets. In the Hydrogen Council’s vision, in which hydrogen is deployed aggressively to limit global warming to 2 degrees, a third of the global growth in hydrogen demand could come from the transportation sector. McKinsey & Company. tab. In the medium term, the investments could create a self-sustained market, turning over more than $2.5 trillion and creating some 30 million jobs along the value chain—based on current multipliers of around 12 jobs per $1 million dollars in sales in the automotive, equipment, and oil and gas industries—if the 2050 vision is realized. The Hydrogen Council has published a new report, Path to Hydrogen Competitiveness: A Cost Perspective, demonstrating that the cost of hydrogen solutions will fall sharply within the next decade, sooner than previously expected.. As scale-up of production, distribution and equipment manufacturing continues, cost is projected to decrease by up to 50% by 2030 for a wide range of … Experts Ed Barriball and Susan Lund explain the research finding that, on average, companies can expect a disruption to their production lines of one to two months—a very long time—every three-and-a-half to four years. McKinsey & Company è una società internazionale di consulenza manageriale. Most transformations fail. In a refinery, hydrogen gas is an important feedstock to many process units, which use it to remove impurities (e.g., hydrotreaters) and to saturate cracked components (e.g., hydrocrackers). February 26, 2021. It considers hydrogen an enabler of the transition to a renewable-energy system and a clean-energy carrier for a wide range of applications. Many ways to do this kind of analysis exist and are used world widely, but the ones that are able to give the best results are, in my opinion, McKinsey 7s model and Galbraith`s Star model. Fully 68 percent of global executives responding to a recent McKinsey survey said that supply chain risk will increase in the coming five years. Though battery-powered trucks are as efficient as hydrogen-powered ones, the cost advantages of hydrogen become clear for applications focused on cargo transport. By. Yet the legacy supply chains of many global companies are ill-prepared for the new environment’s growing uncertainty and complexity. Three models of FCEVs (Honda Clarity, Hyundai ix35/Tucson Fuel Cell, and Toyota Mirai)2 2. Since we created the EVI, several years ago, it has given organizations in the automotive, mobility, and energy sectors a detailed view of the electric-vehicle (EV) market, while highlighting potential future trends. McKinsey & Company 4 3: There is unprecedented global momentum The potential for hydrogen 1. Hydrogen. McKinsey & Company and, for selected technical areas, E4tech. 6 days ago . Not exhaustive Stronger push to limit carbon emissions 185 Parties that have ratified the Paris Agreement to date out of 197 parties to the UNFCCC 66 Countries that have announced net zero emissions as a target by 2050 Projects being announced 100x+Expected … The value of electric vehicles on balancing an (increasingly intermittent) power grid can be significant and could amount to several billions of euros (ref. By using this Site or clicking on "OK", you consent to the use of cookies. Our TCO analysis shows consistent and highly encouraging results. It can play an important Applications of hydrogen 23 Fuel for residential and commercial buildings 29 Transportation fuel 33 Feedstock for industry and long-distance transport 38 Fuel for industry 48 Power generation and grid balancing 50 Hydrogen supply and delivery vision 54 Production 55 Distribution 60 Fueling stations 61 ROAD MAP TO A HYDROGEN ECONOMY 63 Hydrogen is currently considered one of the most promising sustainable energy carriers for mobility applications. Our flagship business publication has been defining and informing the senior-management agenda since 1964. In addition, a solar thermal system gives heat to cover some of the hot water heating demand. Achieving net-zero by 2050 would require the following actions recommend McKinsey & Company: Rapid scale. McKinsey Quarterly. on. Refineries with a reformer typically generate a large portion of the hydrogen they need, but often this must be supplemented with intentional hydrogen generation, especially when making ultra-low sulfur fuels or when using a hydrocracker for conversion. August 2017; Applied Energy 200:290–302; DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2017.05.050. Our mission is to help leaders in multiple sectors develop a deeper understanding of the global economy. Digital upends old models. McKinsey & Company è una società internazionale di consulenza manageriale. Organization structure is only compatible with present business model thus limiting expansion in adjacent product segments. Detailed information on the use of cookies on this Site, and how you can decline them, is provided in our cookie policy. In reality, hydrogen is already less CO2 intense than this: a number of refueling stations draw their hydrogen supply from electrolysis with renewable electricity, and production from fossil sources can be paired with effective carbon capture and storage. Some 50,000 fuel-cell buses and 350,000 fuel-cell trucks could also be on the road globally, saving as much CO2 as some 3.5 million hydrogen-powered passenger cars. Learn about To get there, companies must align their operating model with the demands of the digital world, entailing scrutiny of all dimensions of the supply chain: structures, processes, and people. Published. Trucks that carry heavy payloads over long distances are another priority segment. Even when FCEVs use hydrogen from natural gas without carbon capture, they emit 20 to 30 percent less CO2 than vehicles powered by internal combustion engines. In a 95% decarbonization scenario (needed to reach the 1.5-degree threshold), hydrogen could supply as much as 23% of its total energy consumption by 2050 – more than today’s combined electricity share (20% in 2018) from renewable and fossil fuels. Hydrogen can store more energy in less weight, making fuel cells suitable for vehicles with heavy payloads and long ranges. 2 Speaking during a webinar, Energy Minister Juan Carlos Jobet said that by harnessing renewable energy the South American country could be producing 25 million mt/year of green hydrogen by 2050, generating exports worth more than $30 billion. Supply: If scaled up with the right regulatory framework, clean hydrogen costs can fall faster than expected ... .1 This means new renewable and gray hydrogen supply could hit cost parity in the best regions by 2028, and between 2032 and 2034 in average regions. A complementary supply system consisting of electric power and hydrogen can solve the challenge of integrating renewable power into various economic sectors. 27.11.2017 - McKinsey & Company | Battery electric vehicles are making headlines, but fuel cells are gaining momentum—with good reason. Vans and minibuses could also benefit from stringent regulations on delivery vehicles and other commercial fleets in cities. To reach this target, the world will need to cut energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by 60 percent by 2050—even as the population grows by more than two billion people. In the council’s vision, hydrogen-powered locomotives could also replace 20 percent of diesel locomotives, and hydrogen-based synthetic fuel could power a share of airplanes and freight ships. In this paper, a model of the hydrogen supply chain (HSC) based on energy sources, production, storage, transportation, and market has been developed through a MILP formulation (Mixed Integer Linear Programming). In April 2019, Snam was the first energy company in Europe to introduce of a mix of 5% hydrogen by volume and natural gas into its transmission network. Less than 10 percent—some $20 billion—would be required to build the global hydrogen-refueling infrastructure of 15,000 stations, the lack of which currently constitutes the main bottleneck to FCEV adoption. Globally, countries have already announced they will build some 2,800 hydrogen refueling stations by 2025. McKinsey’s proprietary Electric Vehicle Index (EVI) focuses on battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). The hydrogen revolution: A new development model that starts with the sea, the sun and the wind. Hydrogen could play a vital role in the renewable-energy system and in future mobility. The first fuel-cell tramway is already operating in China, and the first “hydrail” train by Alstom will start taking passengers in Germany by the beginning of 2018. Cost reductions, alongside the scale-up of infrastructure and increase in model choices, are a prerequisite to stimulate customer acceptance of the technology. Hydrogen: The next wave for electric vehicles? Unleash their potential. As in other industries being transformed by technology, hydrogen adoption could come in waves (Exhibit 3). Many refineries must intentionally generate hydrogen to supply all the needs of the hydrotreaters and hydrocrackers.. This requires dramatic changes in our energy system: a strong increase in energy efficiency, a transition to renewable-energy sources and low-carbon energy carriers, and an increase in the rate at which industry captures and stores or reuses the CO2 emissions created by the remaining fossil fuels in use. Hydrogen scaling up. February 26, 2021. In terms of the structural features of the supply chain, the proposed model is a single-commodity (hydrogen), mono-period, deterministic model with four location layers (feedstock, production, fueling station, and CO 2 … Please use UP and DOWN arrow keys to review autocomplete results. Established manufacturers such as Toyota as well as new start-ups like Nikola Motors have started building heavy-duty and long-haul trucks to capture opportunities in the booming freight-transport industry. Assumes average blue and green production cost in Europe (Germany offshore wind) SOURCE: McKinsey Hydrogen Supply Model Our flagship business publication has been defining and informing the senior-management agenda since 1964. business model. Compression for gaseous trucking, liquefaction for liquid trucking 2. Furthermore, the cost of hydrogen fuel is coming down. on. We use cookies essential for this site to function well. Hydrogen Council, McKinsey & Company. We supported the creation of the vision and road map by providing a systemic analysis of the potential role of hydrogen in the energy system toward 2050. Hydrogen is a versatile energy carrier and can be produced with a low carbon footprint. Battery electric vehicles are making headlines, but fuel cells are gaining momentum—with good reason. Both technologies benefit as electric mobility becomes widely accepted and growing scale reduces the costs of electric drivetrains and other components. Learn more about cookies, Opens in new It can play seven major roles in the energy transformation, which span from the backbone of the energy system to the decarbonization of end-use applications (Exhibit 1): As described, hydrogen has a wide range of applications in the energy system (Exhibit 2), with its role for the decarbonization of the transportation sector among the most prominent ones. McKinsey & Company provided analytical support. The figures are from a report by management consultants McKinsey. A solar-hydrogen system is a kind of stand-alone power system (SAPS), which can supply low energy dwellings with energy. Three models of FCEVs (Honda Clarity, Hyundai ix35/Tucson Fuel Cell, and Toyota Mirai) 2 2. By. Hydrogen scaling-up - McKinsey for hydrogen council ... and forklifts are commercially available today. Copies of this document are available upon request or can be downloaded from our website at www.hydrogencouncil.com. 2 Hydrogen-powered aviation | A fact-based study of hydrogen technology, economics, and climate impact by 2050 This document reflects the results of a fact-based study prepared by McKinsey & Company for the Clean Sky 2 JU and Fuel Cells and Hydrogen 2 JU (hereafter the Joint Undertakings). Published. McKinsey Center for Future Mobility Hydrogen: The next wave for electric vehicles? Based on their entire life cycles, FCEVs achieve very low CO2 emissions, in part because they don’t require large batteries whose production is energy and resource intensive. The classical hydrogen supply chain network design (HSCND) model is integrated with the hydrogen fueling station planning (HFSP) model to generate a new formulation. Not only may battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and fuel-cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) not be competing, but the growing success of BEVs may actually drive uptake of FCEVs. The hydrogen revolution: A new development model that starts with the sea, the sun and the wind. McKinsey & Company 4 Hydrogen benefits energy systems, environment and business SOURCE: Hydrogen Council, IEA ETP Hydrogen and Fuel Cells CBS, National Energy Outlook 2016” 13% of total energy demand in 2050 7.5 Gt annual CO 2 abate- ment in 2050 USD 4,000 bn annual sales in 2050 (hydrogen and applications) Oil companies are applying these same methods, with impressive results, potentially increasing revenue by up to 1.2 percent," McKinsey says. Giancarlo Elia Valori “Once again in history, energy is becoming the protagonist of a breaking phase in capitalism: a great transformation is taking place, matched by the digital technological revolution”. Many refineries must intentionally generate hydrogen to supply all the needs of the hydrotreaters and hydrocrackers. collaboration with select social media and trusted analytics partners Since we created the EVI, several years ago, it has given organizations in the automotive, mobility, and energy sectors a detailed view of the electric-vehicle (EV) market, while highlighting potential future trends. To reach the ambitious 2050 target outlined in the vision, important milestones need to be reached by 2030. Previous studies have shown that the start-up of the HSC deployment may be strongly penalized from an economic point of view. Flip the odds. Commercialization of hydrogen vehicles has already started for passenger cars, where it is most suitable for larger segments. Serviamo le principali aziende, istituzioni e organizzazioni non profit a livello mondiale. hereLearn more about cookies, Opens in new 2 carbonizing transportation (4). Published in November 2017 by the Hydrogen Council. Reinvent your business. How the technologies relate will depend mostly on how battery technology will evolve and how quickly cost reductions from scaling fuel-cell production can be realized. It is something akin to the nation's heartland and the region has a specific name, which is Isaan. on. Hydrogen Enablers Hydrogen Supply & End-Use Equipment Adapted from McKinsey, Exhibit 4, US Hydrogen Roadmap, October 2020 2020-2022 Immediate next steps 2023-2025 Early Scale Up 2026-2030 Diversification 2031 + Broad Rollout Dedicated hydrogen production for … The hydrogen will when the solar system does not supply enough energy, be burned in a fuel cell (with a converter) to produce electrical energy or optionally burned in a catalytic burner for heat. Using our model, and assuming the cost-efficient deployment of Blue and Green H 2 by 2030 as outlined above, we can assess how all three types of hydrogen—Black, Blue, and Green—would fare relative to one another in various scenarios. Bernd Heid, Martin Linder, Anna Orthofer, Markus Wilthaner . The scale-up of mature and early-adoption zero-emissions technologies is crucial to meeting targets. The production of low-cost renewable energy enables the production of green hydrogen at parity with the price of diesel in some regions. That’s a small number compared with the estimated 600,000 petrol filling stations worldwide, but it would be sufficient to cover the leading markets for hydrogen vehicles if realized (the German initiative H2Mobility estimates that nationwide coverage is reached with 400 stations). Fuel-cell trains could replace many diesel-powered locomotives on nonelectrified tracks. Hydrogen could play a major role in the Italian energy system of the future. With long ranges and defined routes, they might require less infrastructure: some estimates suggest that 350 filling stations could cover the whole United States. By. If you would like information about this content we will be happy to work with you. Mass production from low cost sources: utilizing brown coal and foreign R.E. From a system modeling viewpoint, the hydrogen supply network design falls within the general category of strategic supply chain management problems (Mula et al., 2010). If serious efforts are made to limit global warming to 2 degrees, the council estimates that hydrogen could contribute around one-fifth of the total abatement need by 2050. Serviamo le principali aziende, istituzioni e organizzazioni non profit a livello mondiale. These disasters have caused damage to energy infrastructure and casualties. People create and sustain change. South Korea plans to convert 26,000 buses to hydrogen, and Shanghai alone plans to purchase and operate 3,000 fuel-cell buses by 2020. Scaling up infrastructure deployment must bring hydrogen costs down further. De Today’s transportation sector depends almost entirely on fossil fuels and creates more than 20 percent of all CO2 emissions. While the annual total investment need of $20 billion to $25 billion until 2030 is a major step up for the hydrogen industry, the world already invests more than $1.7 trillion in energy each year, including $650 billion in oil and gas, $300 billion in renewable electricity, and more than $300 billion in the automotive industry. The hydrogen economy in 2050. Please click "Accept" to help us improve its usefulness with additional cookies. Battery electric vehicles exhibit higher overall fuel efficiency as long as they are not too heavy due to large battery sizes, making them ideally suited for short-distance and light vehicles. With TRNSYS (a transient system simulation program) it is possible to perform parametric studies to find possible system configurations for different climates and loads. Press enter to select and open the results on a new page. our use of cookies, and McKinsey Study ‘Road Map to a US Hydrogen Economy’ Promotes Scale-Up Activities in the Growing Hydrogen Economy Plug Power CEO and …

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